99 days out, economy frustration could decide Congress control

With 99 days left until the Nov. 3 midterms, Cook Political Report moved California’s 22nd District from toss-up to lean Democrat and Maine’s 2nd from lean to likely Republican, a reminder that the House fight is being decided seat by seat.

All 435 House seats and 35 Senate seats are on the ballot, and the arithmetic is unforgiving. Republicans control the House, where 218 votes are needed for a majority when there are no vacancies, and they hold a 53-47 edge in the Senate. Democrats need a net gain of three House seats and four Senate seats to take control.

The clearest national issue hanging over the race is economic frustration. Anthony Salvanto, CBS News’ executive director of elections and surveys, said in July that Americans feel the Iran war is not going well and that those views are tied to the war’s length, communication about it and its impact on the economy. Salvanto oversees the CBS News Poll and the network’s Decision Desk, which tracks election-night results.

Kyle Kondik’s Sabato’s Crystal Ball, based at the University of Virginia Center for Politics, has also kept a wide range of House districts in play. Its July 16 ratings listed Democratic-held seats including CA-6, CA-21, CT-5, IN-1, KS-3, MI-8, MN-2, NH-2, NV-1, NV-4, OH-13, OR-5 and VA-7, while Republican-held seats in the competitive column included CA-13, CA-22 and CA-45. The same update shifted CA-22 from toss-up to lean Democrat and ME-02 from lean to likely Republican.

Redistricting is adding another layer of uncertainty. CBS News maps showed mid-decade changes in Virginia, Texas, California, Missouri, North Carolina and Utah, and the Supreme Court allowed Texas’s redrawn congressional map to stand for the 2026 elections on April 28. Those map changes are altering which districts are truly in play before a single general-election vote is cast.

The Senate picture is narrower but still pivotal. Cook Political Report’s July 1 ratings moved Alaska from lean Republican to toss-up, and the chamber’s 35 contests include special elections in Florida and Ohio. With 23 of the seats up held by Republicans, Democrats face a steep climb and little room for error if economy-driven frustration lasts into fall.