AAA projects record 72.2 million Americans will travel for July 4th

Americans are heading into the July 4th holiday in record numbers even as the cost of moving around the country keeps climbing. AAA projected 72.2 million people will travel at least 50 miles from home between Saturday, June 27 and Sunday, July 5, topping last year’s 71.8 million and stretching roads, rental counters and airport concourses at once. The surge shows that summer travel remains a priority for households, even as higher fuel, airfare and rental-car prices make every mile more expensive.

The pressure is concentrated where it always is: on the road. AAA said 61.4 million people will drive over the holiday week, nearly matching last year’s 61.3 million, and 85% of Independence Day travelers are expected to take to the highway despite gasoline prices near four-year highs. AAA’s national average for regular gas was $4.0250 on June 17, well above the $3.15 average from last Independence Day, while domestic car rentals are running 10% higher than a year ago. For families trying to dodge the worst bottlenecks, Thursday, July 2 stands out as the busiest pickup day for rental cars, according to Hertz.

Air travel will absorb another major share of the holiday rush. AAA expects 5.85 million people to fly domestically, with tickets averaging about $830 and major destinations including Orlando, Denver, Boston, Oahu and Seattle. The Transportation Security Administration has already shown how crowded the holiday period can get, saying in 2025 that it expected to screen more than 18.5 million travelers, with Sunday, July 6 projected as its busiest day at about 2.9 million passengers. That backdrop points to packed checkpoints and full flights across the holiday window.

The remaining 4.93 million travelers are expected to use buses, trains or cruises, with cruises helping drive the biggest gain among those modes. AAA also said the overall holiday total appears to be plateauing, even as it continues to set records, a sign that demand is still strong but no longer accelerating as quickly as it did in earlier post-pandemic holiday seasons. That pattern matters for the broader economy because it suggests consumers are still willing to spend on trips, but only with clear tradeoffs in price and timing.

Weather adds another layer of risk. NOAA’s 2026 Atlantic hurricane outlook calls for a below-normal season, but it still foresees 8 to 14 named storms, 3 to 6 hurricanes and 1 to 3 major hurricanes, enough to disrupt travel plans if systems form along the coast. AAA said it handled nearly 700,000 emergency roadside assistance calls during last year’s July 4th week, a reminder that routine maintenance, a charged phone and an emergency kit can matter as much as a reservation.