Africa warns Ebola outbreak could become deadliest in recorded history

Africa’s top health officials are warning that the Bundibugyo Ebola outbreak in central Africa could eclipse every previous recorded outbreak if transmission does not slow quickly. The alarm centers on eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo and neighboring Uganda, where the virus had already spread across 25 health zones by June 6 and reached health workers as international agencies raced to raise $518 million for containment.

Africa CDC first alerted the continent and global partners on May 15, after the outbreak was confirmed in Ituri Province, a region marked by high population mobility, insecurity and intense cross-border connectivity with Uganda. On the same day, both the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Uganda officially declared Ebola outbreaks. Africa CDC then convened a high-level consultative meeting on May 16 with more than 130 participants and said it was weighing whether to declare a Public Health Emergency of Continental Security.

The scale was already alarming. WHO reported that by June 6 the Democratic Republic of the Congo had recorded 515 confirmed cases and 91 deaths, while Uganda had 19 confirmed cases, including two deaths and one probable death. Across both countries, WHO counted 534 confirmed cases and 93 deaths, with a case fatality rate of 17.4 percent and at least 17 recoveries. The outbreak had also infected 16 confirmed cases among health and care workers, a sign that transmission was not staying contained to isolated households or remote chains.

The warnings are sharper because Bundibugyo Ebola has no approved vaccine or treatment. WHO said the outbreak was moving quickly, while testing capacity and contact tracing were still not at the level needed to interrupt transmission. That gap matters in a region where insecurity can block access, displacement can move the virus into new communities, and cross-border travel can seed fresh clusters before surveillance teams are able to respond.

Africa CDC and WHO launched a joint continental preparedness and response plan on June 5, seeking $518 million over six months to help countries prepare for, rapidly detect and respond to the outbreak. The comparison is stark: the West Africa outbreak from 2014 to 2016 killed more than 11,000 people, and the 2018 to 2020 outbreak in eastern Congo infected about 3,400. If support lags now, the new outbreak could keep spreading through the very conditions public health systems struggle most to control, turning an early warning into a catastrophe that Africa had already tried to prevent.