Americans doubt U.S. will last another 250 years, poll finds

As the United States neared its 250th birthday, the question hanging over the anniversary was not celebration but survival. A Reuters/Ipsos poll completed Monday found 38% of respondents do not believe the country will still exist as one nation 250 years from now, while 62% said it will.

The doubt cut across party lines. The poll found substantial shares of both Democrats and Republicans among those who said the United States would not endure as a single country through the next 250 years. More striking still, about two-thirds of respondents said American democracy is in danger of failing, a sign that unease has moved beyond routine political disagreement and into a deeper fear that the republic’s core institutions are under strain.

That anxiety comes with an unusually charged political backdrop. Donald Trump has put himself at the center of July 4 celebrations marking the 250th anniversary of independence, including a White House cage-match event on his birthday and a planned July 4 rally-style celebration in Washington. Trump has framed his presidency as a mission to save the country from destruction by Democrats, while Democratic leaders argue that Trump is the one threatening democracy and using federal law enforcement against critics.

The poll captures more than a gloomy mood. It shows how national identity, political polarization and trust in institutions now overlap in the country’s anniversary year. A milestone that would normally invite confidence and reflection instead appears to be arriving as a stress test for civic trust, with many Americans no longer assuming that the United States will hold together in its current form.

That is what makes the findings so consequential. The concern is not just about which party wins the next election or which agenda prevails in Washington. It is about whether Americans still believe the political system can endure the pressures of conflict, distrust and escalating division. On the eve of the nation’s 250th year, the poll suggests that for a sizable share of the public, the durability of American democracy itself has become an open question.