Argentina and Spain set for World Cup final betting frenzy

Americans had already staked more than $5.55 billion on Sunday’s World Cup final between Argentina and Spain, turning the match in East Rutherford, New Jersey, into a betting event measured in billions. The New York Times put the combined prediction-market wagering on Kalshi and Polymarket at that level, while Fortune said Kalshi’s World Cup bets alone had topped $1.27 billion. Polymarket showed Spain around 59 percent to win the tournament and Argentina around 40 percent.

CBS Sports has also packaged the final as a bettor’s event, framing the matchup alongside an expert on a 20-9 roll. Spain entered the final as the favorite over reigning champions Argentina, who won the 2022 World Cup and have carried that title into the last match of the 2026 tournament.

The game also comes with a coaching storyline unusual even by World Cup standards. Luis de la Fuente once taught Lionel Scaloni at the Spanish Football Federation’s coaching school, and Reuters described Scaloni as facing his former tutor in the final. That adds another layer to a rivalry already loaded with Messi, a title defense and a crowd that will be watching more than one scoreboard.

Lionel Messi, Scaloni and goalkeeper Emiliano Martínez appeared together at Fanatics Fest in New York before the final, where Messi and Scaloni publicly shrugged off the pressure. ESPN said Messi has continued taking Argentina’s penalties despite recent struggles, while his tournament run has revived talk that this could be his last World Cup. For sportsbooks and prediction markets, that has helped turn the final into a mainstream U.S. wagering spectacle ahead of kickoff in New Jersey.