BBC Sport predictor maps England's route through expanded World Cup knockouts

England and Scotland sit on separate sides of the 2026 World Cup bracket. The men's tournament opens on 11 June across Canada, Mexico and the United States, with 48 teams, 12 groups, 104 matches and a new Round of 32 at the start of the knockout phase.

Why the new format changes the pressure

This is the first major structural change to the men's World Cup since the 32-team era began in 1998, and it alters the basic logic of survival. The top two teams in each of the 12 groups go through automatically, joined by the eight best third-placed finishers, which means a team can play well enough to stay alive without actually finishing second. That extra layer makes the bracket harder to read and turns every late group-stage goal into a potential knockout fork in the road.

The tournament spans 104 matches across 16 cities in three countries, the first World Cup staged by Canada, Mexico and the United States together. The final is set for 19 July in New York New Jersey Stadium, and the knockouts begin with a fresh last-32 round rather than the old last-16 entry point.

Where England and Scotland sit in the bracket

England are in Group L with Croatia, Ghana and Panama, while Scotland are in Group C with Brazil, Morocco and Haiti. They can only meet if they both clear the group stage and then land on converging knockout paths rather than drifting apart through the draw.

BBC Sport has a predictor game that lets you model those permutations as the live tables change, and it includes a prize draw for an official World Cup football signed by members of the BBC World Cup team. The game is built for tracking every match outcome across the 104-game tournament.

The exact routes to an England-Scotland meeting

• Fastest meeting, in the Round of 16: England must finish first in Group L so they go into Match 80, the Group L winners against a third-place team from Groups E, H, I, J or K. Scotland must finish third in Group C, qualify as one of the eight best third-placed sides, and then be placed into Match 79, where Group A winners face a third-place team from Groups C, E, F, H or I. The winners of Match 79 and Match 80 meet in Match 92.

• Quarter-final meeting: England again need to top Group L, but Scotland must go a step further and win Group C. Scotland would then enter Match 76, while England would enter Match 80, and the knockout map sends the winners of Match 76 and Match 78 into Match 91 and the winners of Match 79 and Match 80 into Match 92, with those two branches converging in Match 99. That route requires Scotland to win a group that includes Brazil and Morocco.

• Final meeting: If Scotland finish second in Group C and England top Group L, the bracket sends Scotland through Match 75, then Match 90 and Match 97, while England move through Match 80, Match 92 and Match 99. Those paths stay separate through the quarter-finals and semi-finals and only come together in the final.

How to read the likelihood

The Round of 16 meeting is the most dramatic because it needs the fewest knockout wins, but it still depends on Scotland finishing third and then getting the right third-place slot. The quarter-final route is easier to visualise because it rests on Scotland winning Group C, yet that is a tougher ask on paper given Brazil and Morocco are in the same section. The final route is the most remote, because it requires Scotland to finish second and both sides to keep winning through multiple knockout rounds.