Burnham gains as Restore Britain threatens Reform in Makerfield poll

Restore Britain is emerging as the vote splitter in Makerfield, where a string of polls has turned a Labour by-election into a test of the British right. The numbers suggest Rupert Lowe’s party could drain enough support from Reform UK to help Andy Burnham, even as Nigel Farage insists the contest is a straight fight.

Polling day is Thursday 18 June 2026, after Josh Simons resigned as Labour MP on 14 May. In Labour’s first serious test in the seat since the 4 July 2024 general election, the party is defending a constituency it won with 18,202 votes, or 45.2 per cent, and a majority of 5,399 over Reform. Turnout then was 52.5 per cent from an electorate of 76,641.

Survation’s first Makerfield poll, conducted by telephone among 504 adults in the constituency between 18 and 22 May, put Burnham on 43 per cent and Reform’s Robert Kenyon on 40 per cent, with Restore Britain on 7 per cent. The Greens were on 3 per cent, the Liberal Democrats on 4 per cent and the Conservatives on 2 per cent. A later Survation poll reportedly put Burnham on 49 per cent, Reform on 39 per cent and Restore Britain on 8 per cent.

Then came a leaked poll published on 11 June, which suggested just how disruptive Lowe’s party could be. It put Restore Britain on 13 per cent, Reform on 24 per cent and Labour on 35 per cent, a spread that points to the right-wing vote fragmenting in a way that could hand Burnham the advantage without a major surge of his own.

That is why the contest matters well beyond Makerfield. The seat has been held by Labour continuously since it was created in 1983, and its predecessor, Ince, stayed in Labour hands from 1906 to 1983. Burnham is widely viewed as seeking a route back to Westminster and, if he wins, a platform from which to challenge Keir Starmer’s leadership.

John Curtice said Restore Britain’s intervention is “good news” for Burnham because it makes life much more difficult for Reform. He also cautioned that Reform could still overtake Burnham if it squeezes the Restore vote. Farage, meanwhile, has dismissed the wider noise and said the by-election is a “two-horse race” between Reform and Labour.

Restore Britain itself has moved quickly. Lowe launched it as a pressure group on 30 June 2025 and then as a political party on 13 February 2026, after his split from Reform. Reports say the party has branches in around 550 of the UK’s 650 parliamentary constituencies, and research has suggested a full slate of candidates could deprive Reform of around 70 seats at a general election. In Makerfield, even a few percentage points may be enough to shape the outcome far beyond one contest.