China’s strike reach over Australia is set to grow, report says

China’s ability to strike Australia was set to grow sharply over the next decade, but the most urgent danger was less cinematic than a bomber raid. The greater near-term threat, the Lowy Institute said, lay in cyberattacks and in sabotage or disruption of undersea communications cables that help carry data, trade and military traffic across the region.

The report warned that the long-range threat could expand quickly if Beijing fields a new stealth bomber and moves missiles or aircraft to bases closer to Australia. It also said China has pursued basing arrangements in Pacific Island nations since at least 2018, a move that would extend bomber reach and make attacks more frequent if a permanent presence is established.

Australia did not need to wait for that scenario to feel pressure. The analysis said Beijing already had the capacity to strike northern Australia from outposts in the South China Sea, and it could threaten maritime trade routes through chokepoints in the Indonesian archipelago. That made the issue broader than a hypothetical air raid: it was about gray-zone pressure, conventional strike options and the vulnerability of the cables and sea lanes that keep Australia connected to the world.

For Washington, the warning reached beyond Canberra. The balance of power across the Indo-Pacific was changing in ways that mattered whether or not Australia was directly targeted, and any future crisis would test U.S. alliance planning across a wider theater. The report’s logic pointed to a security environment in which cable cuts, cyber disruption and maritime coercion could arrive before a bomber ever landed on a Pacific island runway.

The strategic stakes were sharpened by economics as well as military planning. China remained Australia’s largest trading partner, accounting for nearly a third of exports, which made Canberra’s room to maneuver narrower even as it worked to deepen security partnerships across the Pacific and deny Beijing a lasting military foothold. The report framed Australia’s challenge as one the United States will also have to absorb over the next decade: preparing for a region where strike reach, infrastructure attacks and alliance resilience will be tested at the same time.