Democrats eye governor wins in Iowa and Ohio as GOP holds power

Rob Sand and Zach Lahn are set for a November race in Iowa after Kim Reynolds decided against a third term, but the governing question is narrower than the ballot box suggests: can a new governor reshape policy when Republicans still dominate the Legislature? In Ohio, Republican Vivek Ramaswamy won his party’s May 5 primary and will face Democrat Amy Acton, giving Democrats another test of whether the governor’s office can still move a red state even when the rest of power stays in GOP hands.

Iowa is the sharper case because Reynolds’ retirement and U.S. Sen. Joni Ernst’s retirement set off a chain reaction of open seats down the ballot. Democrats point to 2025 as proof they can still compete, after winning special elections that broke the Republican supermajority in the Iowa Senate, but Republicans still control the Legislature overall.

The state has seen this dynamic before. Chet Culver’s 2006 victory was the last time a Democrat won the Iowa governorship, and it brought unified Democratic control of state government for the first time in 42 years. Reynolds then beat Fred Hubbell in 2018, a close race that showed how little room there can be between competitive campaigns and durable Republican control.

That is why a governor can still matter without a friendly legislature: veto power, appointments, budget proposals and the ability to set the public agenda remain potent tools. But Ballotpedia’s July 13 tally of 23 Republican trifectas, 16 Democratic trifectas and 11 divided governments underscores the ceiling on that power, especially where one party controls or heavily outweighs the other in both chambers. In Iowa and Ohio, a governor’s win can change the state’s tone and negotiate over every bill, but it cannot by itself write the statutes that Republicans or Democrats still have the votes to block.