Dow futures slip after best first half in five years

U.S. stock futures slipped as July trading began, with Dow futures down 170 points, or 0.33%, after the blue-chip average closed out the first half with its best performance since 2021. S&P 500 futures fell 0.29% and Nasdaq 100 futures lost 0.34%, signaling a cautious start to the new quarter after a run that pushed major U.S. indexes to strong gains.

The second-quarter advance left the Dow up 8.9% for the first six months of 2026, while the S&P 500 rose 9.6% and the Nasdaq climbed 12.8%. The Russell 2000 surged nearly 22% for its best first half since 1991. By Monday’s close, the Dow stood at 52,319.20 and the S&P 500 at 7,499.36, underscoring how far equities had run after a spring and early-summer rally that repeatedly set records.

Chip and AI-related names drove much of the move, and CNBC's tally put Micron, Intel and Advanced Micro Devices at $2 trillion in combined market value added during the second quarter. Paul Hickey, co-founder of Bespoke Investment Group, called the sector attractive over the long term but “a little bit...extended” and said investors “would maybe take a breather here.”

The new quarter also opened with a shift in the backdrop. U.S. stock futures pointed lower in early European trade as traders raised bets on further interest-rate hikes this year, while the dollar and Treasury yields rose. Gold slipped back below $4,000 an ounce and Bitcoin hovered above a 21-month low after the first-half surge.

Investors are now watching Kevin Warsh’s remarks at the European Central Bank Forum in Sintra, Portugal, his first international appearance as Federal Reserve chairman, along with a data-heavy start to July. ADP employment and the ISM Manufacturing PMI are due July 1, and nonfarm payrolls are due July 2.