Final group matches could end in draws to send both teams through

The 48-team World Cup has produced two final-round group matches that can reward caution over ambition: Paraguay against Australia in Group D and Algeria against Austria in Group J. FIFA’s expanded tournament runs to 104 matches, sends 32 teams into a new round of 32, and advances the top two in each of 12 groups plus the eight best third-place finishers, a structure that makes a draw feel less like a stalemate than a route through.

Group D showed the problem most clearly. The United States had already secured first place after beating both Paraguay and Australia, leaving Paraguay and Australia on three points apiece and unable to catch the hosts. Giovanni Malloy’s analysis for Forbes showed why the incentives tilted conservative: a draw would lift both teams to four points, which is usually a strong position in a tournament where third place can still advance, so each side had a rational reason to avoid the kind of open game that rewards risk-taking.

Group J carried the same unease into Kansas City. Argentina had already sealed top spot, while Austria and Algeria sat on three points each heading into their final meeting. ESPN’s Group J standings showed Austria ahead of Algeria on goal difference, and AFP coverage noted that the pairing revived memories of a shared history in which Austria was accused of helping eliminate Algeria in 1982. In this group, a draw could leave Austria safely in second place and keep Algeria alive through the third-place ranking, which is exactly the kind of calculation FIFA said it wanted to avoid.

That is the design failure. FIFA first abandoned its original idea of 16 groups of three because teams in the final round would know exactly what result they needed, then moved to synchronized kickoffs after the 1982 West Germany-Austria result sent both through at Algeria’s expense. But the new 48-team structure still creates softer edges at the end of group play. South Korea’s 1-0 loss to South Africa left it with three points and a minus-1 goal difference that is likely enough for the third-place table, while in 2022 that same defeat would have ended the campaign. More teams have been welcomed into the tournament, but the final group games have also become exercises in calculation, not just competition.