FlightAware sues Kalshi over flight-cancellation prediction contracts

FlightAware sued Kalshi in federal court in New York over contracts tied to flight cancellations, turning a data dispute into a broader test of whether disruption forecasts can be sold as tradable event markets. The complaint says Kalshi used FlightAware’s data and name to run “gambling markets on flight cancellations” without permission.

The case was filed in the Southern District of New York and names Kalshi Inc., KalshiEX LLC, Kalshi Klear Inc. and Kalshi Klear LLC as defendants. A reposted copy of the complaint says FlightAware is seeking damages and injunctive relief, raising the stakes for a company that has tried to turn real-world events into financial contracts.

Kalshi announced plans in July 2026 to offer contracts that would let users predict the percentage of flights canceled at an airport within a given timeframe. In a July 15 filing with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, the platform disclosed the contracts as part of its push deeper into prediction markets that already range from politics and weather to travel disruptions.

The fight lands at a moment when prediction markets are drawing closer attention from regulators and lawmakers because they can look like both hedging tools and gambling products. Supporters say those markets can aggregate information efficiently and give users a way to trade on outcomes; critics argue the same structure can blur into wagering, especially when the underlying event involves public infrastructure, safety or consumer harm.

Flight cancellations are especially messy as a market signal because they can be driven by storms, air-traffic delays, labor shortages, technical failures and airport congestion. That mix makes the data commercially valuable to airlines, traders and insurers, but it also makes it difficult to separate a useful forecast from a bet on a disruption that passengers cannot control.

The lawsuit could influence how far prediction markets can go in packaging operational events as tradable products, particularly if courts or regulators decide some outcomes are too tied to proprietary aviation data or too close to ordinary betting. For Kalshi, the case arrives as it has expanded into new contract categories; for FlightAware, it is a challenge to the use of its tracking data and brand in a market built on airline disruption.