Flu Rises Above COVID-19 in U.S. Winter Illness Burden

For the second year in a row, the United States saw a higher burden from influenza than from COVID-19 during the winter season, according to national surveillance data and analysis from The Washington Post. The shift marks a significant change from the early pandemic years, as health experts examine whether this trend will continue.

Flu Surpasses COVID-19 in Seasonal Impact

During the 2024–2025 respiratory virus season, influenza accounted for more cases, hospitalizations, and medical visits than COVID-19. The Washington Post reported that, while both viruses circulated widely, flu's resurgence outpaced COVID-19, a reversal from the peak pandemic years when COVID-19 dominated U.S. hospitals and headlines.

• Flu illnesses were estimated in the millions, with hospitalizations and deaths surpassing those attributed to COVID-19 during the same period.
• The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s preliminary in-season estimates indicated a substantial flu burden, particularly among children and older adults.

CDC surveillance reports confirmed that weekly influenza hospitalizations were consistently higher than those for COVID-19 throughout much of the winter.

Comparing the Numbers: Flu and COVID-19

Analysis of CDC COVID-19 case and death trackers shows that, while COVID-19 remains a significant health risk—especially for older adults and those with underlying conditions—its seasonal impact has diminished compared to the early pandemic waves. In contrast, influenza returned to pre-pandemic levels of activity.

• Flu hospitalizations peaked higher than COVID-19 in most regions, according to CDC's FluView dashboard.
• COVID-19 hospitalizations and deaths, while still notable, have declined thanks to vaccination, immunity from prior infections, and improved treatments.

This shift was observed in the prior 2023–2024 season as well, suggesting a possible new pattern in U.S. respiratory illness trends.

Explaining the Shift

Experts cited by The Washington Post point to several factors behind flu's resurgence:

• Waning population immunity to flu after several years of low circulation during the pandemic.
• Widespread COVID-19 vaccination and prior infections have reduced the severity and frequency of COVID-19 hospitalizations for many Americans.
• The relaxation of pandemic-era precautions (masking, social distancing) has allowed flu to spread more easily.

CDC’s seasonal respiratory virus update notes that influenza, COVID-19, and RSV are now co-circulating, each contributing to the annual burden but with shifting dominance.

What Does the Future Hold?

The recurrence of a more severe flu season compared to COVID-19 raises questions about whether this pattern will continue. The Washington Post notes that while COVID-19 remains unpredictable—with the potential for new variants or surges—current trends suggest that flu may reclaim its historic role as the primary driver of winter respiratory illness in the U.S.

Public health officials continue to urge vaccination against both flu and COVID-19, emphasizing that both viruses remain significant threats, especially for vulnerable populations. Ongoing surveillance and research will be crucial in tracking the evolution of these patterns and informing future vaccination and prevention strategies.

Further Reading and Data

• For up-to-date estimates of flu illnesses, hospitalizations, and deaths, see the CDC’s preliminary in-season flu burden estimates.
• Explore COVID-19 trends and comparisons with influenza using the CDC COVID Data Tracker.
• Dive deeper into influenza surveillance and trends over time with the CDC FluView Interactive dashboard.

As winter respiratory seasons continue to evolve, health experts and the public alike will be watching closely to see whether influenza’s dominance over COVID-19 is a lasting shift or a temporary trend.