French court ruling could bar Marine Le Pen from 2027 race

The Paris appeals court was scheduled to rule Tuesday on whether Marine Le Pen’s embezzlement conviction would keep her out of France’s 2027 presidential race, a decision that could force the National Rally to redraw its succession plan in a single afternoon. The court was due to begin reading the verdict at 1:30 p.m., with Le Pen expected to face the public again in a prime-time television interview at 8 p.m.

Le Pen’s appeal centers on a March 31, 2025, Paris court ruling that found her guilty of misusing European Parliament funds in a scheme that paid party staff as parliamentary assistants while they worked for the National Rally in France. That court imposed a five-year ban on holding public office with immediate effect, along with prison time and a fine, after finding that the case involved a network of 24 defendants, including party officials and parliamentary assistants. Coverage of the case put the disputed sums at more than €4 million in one account and around €2.9 million in another, reflecting different ways of describing the alleged losses and funds at issue.

The political stakes go well beyond Le Pen herself. She has been the face of the French far right for years, carrying the National Rally from the margins to the threshold of power, and she remains one of the strongest contenders in the field for 2027. If the ban is upheld, Jordan Bardella, 30, the National Rally president and Le Pen’s heir apparent, would be the likeliest replacement and could immediately become the party’s presidential candidate. Bardella’s emergence would also test whether the movement’s appeal rests on Le Pen’s personal brand or on a broader voter coalition that has already lifted the National Rally to the biggest party bloc in parliament.

For the center and the rest of the field, the ruling could reset the race overnight. Emmanuel Macron is term-limited and cannot run again, leaving 2027 as an open contest in which the far right’s choice of standard-bearer could shape the entire campaign. If Le Pen is cleared, she keeps her fourth presidential bid alive; if the ban survives, the election begins under very different terms, with her movement forced to prove it can transfer power without the candidate who made it nationally dominant.