Global food prices hit three-year high as weather and war bite

For U.S. households, July’s global food spike showed up in bread, pasta, cooking oil and sugar-heavy products, as the FAO Food Price Index climbed to 131.1 points. That was the highest reading since January 2023, up 0.6% from June and 1.0% above a year earlier.

The sharpest pressure came from staples that sit close to the dinner table. Its cereal price index rose 3.4% month-on-month in July, while wheat prices jumped 5.8% and stood 9.9% above their level a year earlier. Heatwaves, dry conditions and broader energy price dynamics pushed up cereals, vegetable oils and sugar.

Conflict added another layer of strain. Concerns over Black Sea supplies returned as war continued to disrupt grain flows, shipping corridors, fertilizer access and trade logistics. Disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz were a major shock to global energy, fertilizer and agrifood systems, while UN Trade and Development warns that fertilizer disruptions raise risks for food security and trade.

Low-income countries are hit hardest by global food inflation, since poorer households spend a larger share of income on basics and import-dependent states have fewer ways to absorb a shock. FAO's Food Price Monitoring and Analysis work gives early warning on high food prices at country level, especially in developing countries where local shortages can turn global food-price moves into immediate food-security risks.

July’s reading also landed after a long period of elevated prices. FAO food costs reached a historical peak in March 2022, and the index had already moved higher earlier in 2026, with reduced wheat plantings expected as farmers responded to lower prices.