Gold eases from two-week high as dollar firms, Fed minutes loom

Gold eased after touching a two-week high as a firmer dollar and the prospect of fresh Federal Reserve guidance pulled traders back toward the policy path. Spot gold fell 0.46% to $4,156.36 an ounce after reaching $4,202.13, its highest since June 22, while August U.S. gold futures rose 1.1% to $4,168.90. The dollar added 0.2%, making bullion more expensive for buyers using other currencies and undercutting a rally that had already carried gold more than 2% higher in the prior week.

The immediate focus is the Fed's June 16-17 meeting minutes, due Wednesday, after the central bank left its benchmark rate unchanged at 3.50% to 3.75% on June 17. Traders are still pricing roughly a 56% chance of a rate increase in September, down from more than 60% before the latest labor data. Higher rates tend to weigh on gold because the metal yields nothing, so any sign that policymakers are willing to keep rates elevated for longer would likely reinforce dollar strength and keep pressure on bullion.

Retirement savers with gold ETFs or bullion-linked funds often use the metal as an inflation hedge, but the June U.S. jobs report complicated that trade-off: the economy added just 57,000 payrolls and the unemployment rate fell to 4.2% from 4.3% in May, signaling a cooling labor market while inflation fears remain alive. For consumers, the same Fed signals that move gold also shape mortgage rates, credit-card costs and the dollar's strength against imported goods.

Central bank buying has kept a floor under prices even as traders book profits. World Gold Council data showed central banks bought a net 41 tonnes of gold in May, led by Poland with 18 tonnes and China with 10 tonnes, while Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan continued monthly buying and Turkey and Russia sold. The council's 2026 survey drew 76 responses, the highest on record, and nearly 89% of surveyed central banks expect global gold reserves to rise over the next year.

J.P. Morgan sees gold capped at $4,300 an ounce in the third quarter and $4,500 in the fourth, while silver slipped and platinum and palladium were mixed.