Gulf Coast braces for record rain as storm Arthur nears Texas

More than 40 million people across the Gulf Coast were bracing for record rain as Potential Tropical Cyclone One hovered about 65 miles southwest of Corpus Christi, Texas, with maximum sustained winds near 30 mph and a slow northeast drift of about 6 mph. The system, which could become Tropical Storm Arthur, put the risk-to-readiness gap in sharp relief: the main threat was not wind, but days of dangerous flash flooding from Texas through Georgia.

A tropical storm watch stretched from Sargent, Texas, to Morgan City, Louisiana, while the National Hurricane Center warned that life-threatening flooding was likely over portions of Texas and Louisiana. Rain was already falling hard, with 1 to 2 inches an hour reported in parts of Louisiana and Texas, and flash flood warnings were posted in southeast Louisiana and Harris County, Texas, where roads were beginning to flood. In Shreveport, the same slow-moving downpours were already turning streets and drainage systems into a hazard.

The heaviest rain was forecast for a broad swath of the South, with some areas expected to receive up to a foot of rain. That put communities from Texas to Georgia at risk of repeated rounds of flooding, especially where the same neighborhoods and roads could take hit after hit from stalled bands of rain. The Gulf Coast energy corridor was also in the danger zone, including offshore drilling and refining assets near the Texas coast.

Forecasters had already warned earlier in June that warm Gulf waters and a stalled front could fuel heavy rain even before a system fully organized, and the Atlantic hurricane season officially began on June 1. The memory of early July 2021 loomed large: an unnamed storm dumped more than 20 inches of rain on Rockport, Texas, over five days, flooding Corpus Christi-area neighborhoods and multiple rivers and creeks in South Texas. With Arthur nearing and rain already falling, the window to prepare was narrowing by the hour.