High beef prices squeeze July Fourth grilling season in US

Lean and extra-lean ground beef hit a record $8.62 a pound in May, putting July Fourth cookouts under pressure as households faced some of the highest burger costs in years. Wells Fargo’s summer barbecue estimate put a meal for 10 at about $161, up 2.4% from a year earlier, with hamburger beef alone rising 14%.

The strain starts on the ranch. The U.S. cattle inventory stood at 86.2 million head on Jan. 1, 2026, down from 86.5 million a year earlier, and included 27.6 million beef cows, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture. USDA said the herd contracted for a seventh straight year in 2025, with the cycle beginning in 2015 and peaking in 2019. Drought, wildfires and higher feed costs have discouraged ranchers from rebuilding herds, leaving less beef available just as demand for burgers and steaks stays firm.

Animal-health and trade policy have tightened supply further. USDA’s Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service kept live cattle imports through southern border ports suspended because of New World screwworm in Mexico, and APHIS confirmed a U.S. detection in a bovine in Zavala County, Texas, on June 3. President Donald Trump has pushed low-tariff Argentine beef imports and ordered the Justice Department to investigate whether meatpackers are colluding to raise prices, adding another layer of uncertainty to a market already short on cattle.

Some consumers are already changing what goes on the grill. Wells Fargo chief agricultural economist Michael Swanson said there is "no real lever" in the domestic market to add supply quickly, and noted that some shoppers are moving toward chicken and pork. The American Farm Bureau Federation’s 2026 Fourth of July cookout survey put a classic cookout for 10 at $73.82, up 4% from last year and the highest since the survey began in 2013. That basket includes cheeseburgers, chicken breasts, pork chops and sides, showing how beef inflation is spilling into the broader holiday food budget even before charcoal is lit.

Wells Fargo said the summer barbecue still costs less than dining out or catering, but proteins remain the main driver of higher bills. With the herd still shrinking, imports constrained and retail beef prices already elevated, relief looks unlikely before the holiday weekend and may take longer than one grilling season to arrive.