Hong Kong shares brace for lock-up expiries after hot IPO rallies

Knowledge Atlas Technology, also known as Zhipu AI, will release 25.6 million shares from a six-month cornerstone-investor lock-up on Wednesday, a tranche equal to nearly 6% of its outstanding stock. The expiry comes as six Hong Kong listings face unlocks this week, including MiniMax and Shanghai Iluvatar CoreX Semiconductor, and as the Hang Seng Index remains down 8.9% this year.

The timing matters because Zhipu AI has already surged more than 1,200% since listing, leaving it exposed to profit-taking once early backers can sell. The company was among the names on display at a January 8, 2026 listing ceremony at the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, alongside Shanghai Iluvatar CoreX Semiconductor and Shenzhen Edge Medical, a reminder of how quickly the market’s hottest debuts can move from celebration to sell-down risk.

The pressure is arriving after a strong first half for Hong Kong listings. EY said Chinese mainland and Hong Kong IPOs together accounted for 33% of global IPO deal volume and 22% of global IPO funds raised in the first half of 2026. Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing raised US$26.8 billion from 84 IPOs in that period, ranking second globally by proceeds, while the average first-day return for Hong Kong IPOs was 61%. That level of debut performance has helped fuel momentum trading, but it has also set up a crowded exit for investors who bought into the first burst of enthusiasm.

Morgan Stanley analysts said the biggest secondary-selling pressure should be concentrated in July and September, and warned that unlocks can create liquidity headwinds even when company fundamentals stay intact. Goldman Sachs put the scale of the coming supply in even starker terms, estimating that US$274 billion of locked-up shares will be released into the Hong Kong market over the next 12 months, a record-high volume. Its analysts said prices have historically dipped 4% to 7% within three to six months of release.

Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing kept the six-month cornerstone-investor lock-up after considering staggered-release reforms in 2025, rejecting a proposal that would have allowed some cornerstone shares to be sold earlier. That leaves the current wave of expiries tied to the standard IPO timetable, not a one-off policy shift, and turns the next few months into a direct test of whether Hong Kong’s AI, semiconductor and robotics listings can hold their gains once the first wave of investors is free to cash out.