HSBC cuts 2026 and 2027 gold price forecasts as dollar strengthens

HSBC cut its gold forecasts for 2026 and 2027 on Thursday, lowering its average 2026 estimate to $4,560 an ounce from $4,864 and its 2027 average to $4,925 from $5,000. Spot gold was trading around $4,100, more than 20% below the record $5,594.82 set on January 29.

The move marks a sharp reset from HSBC’s January stance, when it said gold could reach $5,000 an ounce in the first half of 2026 and projected a 2026 average of $4,587, a range of $5,050 to $3,950, and a year-end level of $4,450. Its new call sets a narrower 2026 trading band of $3,800 to $4,700, with year-end 2026 at $4,750 and year-end 2027 at $5,025.

A more hawkish outlook for Federal Reserve policy and a stronger dollar have altered the backdrop for bullion. When markets price in tighter U.S. monetary policy for longer, Treasury yields tend to stay elevated and the dollar strengthens, which raises the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold and makes bullion more expensive for non-U.S. buyers. Liquidation after the metal’s long run-up has also weighed on prices.

Much of the market has already adjusted to a stronger-dollar, higher-rate environment, while fiscal-deficit concerns, economic uncertainty and sovereign debt burdens continue to underpin demand. Central-bank buying, which helped drive the rally in recent years, has moderated but remains a structural support, and exchange-traded-fund outflows in the first half of the year could reverse later in 2026.

World Gold Council data show first-quarter 2026 demand rose to 1,231 tonnes and total value hit a record $193 billion, with bar-and-coin buying leading gains even as ETF demand slowed. World Gold Council data show global physically backed gold ETFs shed $2 billion in May, while official central-bank reserves rose by a net 41 tonnes.