Israel sets October 27 election date amid war fallout

The Knesset House Committee on July 12 formalized July 17 as the dissolution date, putting Israel on course for a national election on October 27, the latest date allowed by law. The vote will be the country’s first held on its originally scheduled date since 1988, after weeks in which the ballot could have been brought forward.

In May, lawmakers advanced the dissolution bill in a preliminary 110-0 vote, yet the coalition still chose to preserve every possible week before voters return to the polls. The current government is the first Israeli government in more than 50 years to complete a full term. Israel’s 120-seat Knesset requires 61 seats for a majority, and every week before the vote gives parties more time to regroup, bargain and sharpen their pitches.

The election will be the first national vote since Hamas’ October 7, 2023 attack and the wars that followed in Gaza, Lebanon and Iran. Benjamin Netanyahu returned to office in 2022 at the head of Israel’s most right-wing government to date, but the shock of the attack badly damaged his security credentials. Public dissatisfaction has also grown over the outcome of the Iran war, giving the campaign a forceful mix of security, regional and domestic issues that is likely to dominate the final stretch.

Polling has put Netanyahu’s coalition at 49 seats, well short of the 61 needed for a majority, while a survey found that 55% of Israelis wanted him to step down from politics. Even so, the opposition has no obvious route to a governing bloc of its own, which means the next government could again depend on late alliances and post-election bargaining rather than a decisive mandate.

Former IDF chief Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party has recently polled competitively with Likud in some surveys, at times tying or slightly leading the ruling party.