Labour, Reform face high-stakes Makerfield by-election as Burnham looms

Voters in Makerfield headed to the polls on Thursday with 14 candidates on the ballot, after Labour MP Josh Simons resigned on May 14 to clear the way for Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham. Polls opened at 7am in a contest that has become more than a local vacancy: it is being read as a measure of Labour’s grip on a seat it has held since 1983, and of Reform UK’s ability to turn recent gains into parliamentary breakthrough.

The by-election carries added weight because Makerfield is one of the clearest Labour-Reform marginals in Greater Manchester. At the 2024 general election, Labour won the seat with 45.2% of the vote, Reform UK finished second on 31.8%, and Labour’s majority was 5,399. Turnout was 52.5% in an electorate of 76,641, underlining how a relatively modest swing could alter the result in a seat that was only first fought under the current 2024 boundary at the last general election.

That history matters. Much of the modern constituency was once part of Ince, which Labour held continuously from 1906 to 1983, and Makerfield itself has never voted for another party since its creation. But recent local election results in Wigan have sharpened the warning signs for Labour: in the eight Makerfield wards that voted in May 2026, Reform reportedly took 50% of the vote while Labour finished on 23%. For a party trying to defend older industrial communities, that pattern points to a deeper strain.

The issues driving the campaign have been familiar but potent: immigration, antisocial behaviour, local identity and the cost of living. Those themes have given Reform a clear opening in working-class areas where frustration with services, insecurity and national politics can quickly merge into one vote. Robert Kenyon, a plumber from the Manchester region, has stood for Reform UK as the party tries to convert that mood into a parliamentary foothold.

Burnham has framed the contest in larger terms, saying the campaign is about offering a “new script” in British politics and changing Labour. That is why the result will be watched well beyond Wigan: a Labour hold would ease pressure on Keir Starmer, while a Reform surge would be read as a warning that the party’s advance in Greater Manchester is no longer confined to council elections.