Makerfield by-election could open path for Andy Burnham challenge to Starmer

The Makerfield by-election turned a Labour stronghold into a national test of Keir Starmer’s authority. Josh Simons, who held the seat from 4 July 2024 until 18 May 2026, stepped aside after announcing on 14 May 2026 that he would create a vacancy for Andy Burnham, the Mayor of Greater Manchester.

That decision gave the contest a significance far beyond Wigan and the surrounding towns. Makerfield has been held by Labour MPs since it was created in 1983 from parts of the Ince, Wigan, Leigh, Newton and Westhoughton constituencies, and UK Parliament lists the seat as vacant. In Westminster terms, the by-election was being treated less like a routine local contest and more like a potential opening for Burnham to enter the Commons and mount a direct challenge to Starmer.

The comparison that hangs over the race is Leyton in 1965, the last time a by-election was said to have been engineered specifically to create a seat for someone not already in Parliament. That rarity is what has made Makerfield so sensitive inside Labour. Burnham would gain not just a seat, but a parliamentary base from which to test Starmer’s leadership in public, with the broader question of who should lead Labour into the next general election suddenly pulled into focus.

Starmer has pledged to campaign for Burnham, a signal that only underlined the political awkwardness of the maneuver. Pat McFadden has warned that an unnecessary by-election carries political risk, while Jess Phillips has said Starmer could still be ousted even if Burnham does not win Makerfield. Those warnings have framed the contest as a measure of Labour’s internal discipline as much as its electoral strength.

Makerfield was one of several by-elections since the 2024 general election, alongside Aberdeen South, Arbroath & Broughty Ferry, Gorton & Denton, and earlier contests such as Runcorn and Helsby. But none of those races carried the same potential to reshape Labour’s leadership map. If Burnham secures a Commons foothold, the pressure on Starmer would not stop at one seat. It would spread through the party’s governing coalition and intensify the fight over who commands Labour’s future.