Makerfield by-election tests Labour grip and Reform's challenge

The Makerfield by-election will put Labour’s long grip on one of its most reliable English seats under unusual strain, with Reform UK emerging as a serious challenger in a contest shaped as much by local frustration as by national politics. Polling day is Thursday 18 June 2026, after Josh Simons resigned as Labour MP on 14 May 2026.

Labour won the new Makerfield constituency at the 4 July 2024 general election with 18,202 votes, or 45.2 per cent, and a majority of 5,399 over Reform UK. Reform finished second with 12,803 votes, or 31.8 per cent, while turnout was 52.5 per cent from an electorate of 76,641. The result left Labour in control of a seat it has held continuously since Makerfield was created in 1983, and that rests on a much older tradition: the predecessor seat of Ince was Labour-held from 1906 to 1983.

That history is why the by-election is drawing attention far beyond Wigan. The contest has been described locally and nationally as unusually consequential, with reporting linking the outcome to the broader Labour leadership situation and to Andy Burnham’s standing in Greater Manchester politics. For Labour, a comfortable hold would reinforce Keir Starmer’s authority; a sharper-than-expected swing to Reform would harden concerns about how far the party has lost touch with some former industrial communities in North West England.

On the ground, residents, campaigners and business owners have pointed to a different set of questions: the cost of living, immigration, anti-social behaviour and local identity. Makerfield covers most or all of Wigan and includes Ashton-in-Makerfield, Hindley and other towns and villages shaped by the decline of mining and manufacturing. In those places, the campaign has exposed a mixed mood, with some voters still firmly behind Labour and others openly drawn to Reform’s message.

Local reporting has suggested that support is not moving in a single direction. Some women interviewed in the area said they were overwhelmingly backing Labour and Andy Burnham, while other residents voiced sharper dissatisfaction with Labour and showed interest in Nigel Farage’s party. That split matters in a seat where the 2024 Labour majority was not overwhelming by historic standards, and where turnout, tactical voting and turnout discipline could decide whether Labour can defend its old base or whether Reform can turn a strong second place into a broader warning to the national party.