Mega IPO frenzy in SpaceX, OpenAI and Anthropic stirs bubble fears

A $1.75 trillion target valuation for SpaceX has turned the latest IPO rush into more than a Silicon Valley spectacle. With SpaceX, OpenAI and Anthropic all signaling plans to go public by the end of 2026, the frenzy is starting to look like a broader market test, one that could reach retirement accounts and index funds as quickly as it reaches trading desks.

The caution comes from the scale and the speed of the ambition. CNBC reported on May 22 that SpaceX’s filing confirmed an offering that could become the largest float in history, while OpenAI and Anthropic were also lining up public debuts later in the year. For John Blank, chief equity strategist at Zacks, the rush itself is a warning sign. He said the surge in giant IPOs may mark a market top, echoing the way investors rushed to bring companies public in 1999.

The concern is not just psychological. Dan Coatsworth, head of markets at AJ Bell, said SpaceX’s private-company status means “little is known” about its finances, and he warned that a valuation this high leaves room for an ugly surprise. That risk matters because the enthusiasm is colliding with weak earnings logic. CNBC reported that SpaceX and OpenAI are not yet profitable, and SpaceX’s S-1 says the company has a history of net losses and may never achieve profitability.

SpaceX’s own numbers show how much of the business still rests on a narrow base. The company lost $4.28 billion in the latest quarter after losing $4.94 billion in 2025. Starlink brought in $3.26 billion in revenue and accounted for 69% of total revenue, but SpaceX also said it expects significant capital expenditures over several years before AI products and services turn profitable. That is the kind of cash burn that can support growth narratives for a long time, until it cannot.

The bigger market picture is what has some strategists drawing a direct line to the dot-com era. Inc. reported that SpaceX, Anthropic and OpenAI are expected to raise $175 billion combined, a sum that could outstrip the late-internet boom in real dollars. Nick Colas of DataTrek Research said a 15% to 20% first-week IPO pop would resemble the 1995 to 1998 period, but gains of 50% to 70% would look more like the bubble’s late stage; DataTrek’s calculations put the average first-day gain in 1999 at 71.2%. SpaceX’s filing trail, from its May 20 S-1 to later amendments on June 3 and additional IPO-related documents on June 11 and June 12, shows the process is moving fast. In a market already primed for AI excess, that kind of momentum can feed on itself long before the first public share trades.