Michigan Senate primary tightens as Stevens and El-Sayed battle for open seat

Abdul El-Sayed led Haley Stevens 54% to 39% in an Emerson College Polling survey released July 30, putting Michigan’s open Democratic Senate primary on a knife-edge before voting closed Tuesday. The seat opened after Sen. Gary Peters said on Jan. 28, 2025, that he would not seek reelection, and the winner was set to take on former Rep. Mike Rogers, who was unopposed on the Republican side.

The race became a test of which Democratic coalition could best hold together in a battleground state. Stevens, a four-term congresswoman, was described by The New York Times as a centrist backed by the party establishment, while NBC News said she drew support from Washington and Michigan Democratic establishments. El-Sayed, a former public health official, pulled energy from progressive supporters and attention from national left-leaning figures, turning the contest into a referendum on whether Democrats should lean on moderation or a sharper reform message.

The Associated Press framed the primary as a test of the progressive movement’s power and of the American Israel Public Affairs Committee’s influence. Time said on Aug. 3 that the race had turned ugly ahead of voting, and live-results pages from The New York Times, NBC News, AP, NPR and 270toWin all singled it out as a marquee contest in Michigan’s Aug. 4 primary, part of a five-state slate that also included Kansas, Missouri, Virginia and Washington. Polls closed at 8 p.m. Eastern, except 9 p.m. Eastern in areas of Michigan that observe Central Time.

Even with El-Sayed’s edge in the late July poll, the broader picture stayed close enough to keep the outcome in question during election-night coverage. 270toWin’s average showed El-Sayed at 46.8% and Stevens at 39.4%, with 4.5% undecided or other. The result left Democrats with a nominee for a November race in a state they expect to fight for again, but the primary made plain that the party still has not settled the balance between establishment credibility and progressive intensity it thinks can win Michigan.