Modi, Trump likely to meet at G7 amid trade tensions

Narendra Modi is likely to sit down with Donald Trump on the sidelines of the Group of Seven summit in France, putting trade, visas and energy cooperation at the center of a meeting that could reveal how transactional U.S.-India relations have become. The encounter would come as both governments try to turn a recent easing of tension into concrete gains, even as tariffs, labor politics and market-access demands continue to pull the relationship in different directions.

The summit is set for June 15 to 17 in Evian-les-Bains, and Modi is scheduled to begin a five-day visit on June 13 before traveling on to Slovakia after the G7. That timing gives New Delhi and Washington a narrow window to push ahead on the first tranche of a bilateral trade agreement, which India hopes to finish by mid-July.

Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal has said most issues in the first phase of the pact have already been resolved and only minor drafting points remain. The stakes are high: U.S. goods imports from India reached $103.8 billion in 2025, while the U.S. goods trade deficit with India stood at $58.2 billion. Total U.S. services trade with India was estimated at $83.4 billion in 2024, underscoring why both sides see the negotiations as more than a symbolic reset.

The H-1B visa issue is likely to be just as sensitive. U.S. government data for fiscal 2024 show India accounted for 283,397 H-1B approvals, about 71% of the total, a scale that makes visa policy a flashpoint for Indian professionals, U.S. technology employers and American domestic labor politics. Any discussion between Modi and Trump will be watched closely by workers and companies whose access to those visas can shape hiring, staffing and long-term planning.

The meeting would also unfold against a strained but still functional strategic backdrop. U.S. tariffs on Indian goods and Trump’s repeated claims, denied by India, that he helped end last year’s brief India-Pakistan conflict have clouded ties. At the same time, Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s May 24 visit to India helped cool some of the friction, with official talks covering trade, energy, defense and security.

That broader agenda has only deepened in recent weeks. At the 11th Quad Foreign Ministers’ Meeting in New Delhi on May 26, the United States, India, Japan and Australia highlighted cooperation on maritime security, critical minerals, port infrastructure and energy resilience. For Modi and Trump, the likely G7 exchange would test whether strategic partnership language can survive domestic political pressures on tariffs, visas and energy, or whether those pressures will keep defining the relationship.