Nasdaq futures rise as investors shrug off Middle East tensions

Nasdaq 100 futures climbed 0.7% on Thursday even as renewed U.S.-Iran strikes, higher oil prices and a drop in Strait of Hormuz traffic kept geopolitical risk in view. S&P 500 futures were up 0.2%, while Dow futures fell 66 points, a split that showed investors were still reaching for growth and chip exposure instead of a broad safety trade.

Semiconductors led the move. The VanEck Semiconductor ETF gained almost 3%, lifted by Micron Technology’s 5% advance and a gain of more than 4% in Sandisk. That strength came alongside a market that was still absorbing fresh headlines from the Middle East, where the U.S. military said it had completed strikes on more than 80 targets and Washington revoked a license allowing Iran to sell oil after three tankers were hit by projectiles in the Strait of Hormuz.

The market response has been notably restrained. Oil rose and bonds sold off on Wednesday as renewed fighting in the Middle East and U.S. sanctions on Iranian oil threatened the ceasefire, but the dollar eased slightly on Thursday even after the latest attacks. Vessel-tracking data also showed a drop-off in transits through the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway that handles a critical share of global crude flows and remains the clearest test of whether the tension can spill into supply.

For now, investors appear to be treating the flare-up as a risk event rather than a regime change. Daniela Hathorn, senior market analyst at Capital.com, said renewed Middle East tensions had interrupted “what had become an increasingly complacent market narrative,” a sign that traders had spent weeks pricing in de-escalation. That complacency is being challenged, but not yet shattered.

The backdrop was already complicated by monetary policy. Minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee’s June meeting were released on Wednesday, adding another layer of uncertainty for rate-sensitive assets as markets weighed oil, geopolitics and the path of interest rates at the same time. For now, the clearest signal is that Wall Street is still willing to buy the dip in risk assets, even as the Middle East pushes back against that calm.