New York primaries signal growing Democratic split over Israel and Gaza

Zohran Mamdani’s intervention in three New York Democratic House primaries ended with a clean sweep on June 24, as all three of the progressive candidates he backed won and two incumbents were defeated. The results landed in New York City, home to the nation’s largest Jewish population, and immediately sharpened questions about how durable Democratic support for Israel will remain as Gaza and the Iran war continue to reshape the party’s politics.

At two separate victory parties, crowds chanted, “Free, free Palestine!” The message was unmistakable: in a city where support for Israel once fit comfortably inside mainstream Democratic politics, openly pro-Palestinian rhetoric is now surfacing in front of victorious candidates and their supporters. The races have already been read as a warning shot to pro-Israel groups, including the American Israel Public Affairs Committee, and as a sign that the party’s internal split over Israel, Gaza and U.S. aid is widening.

The symbolism was heightened by the scale of the defeat. Mamdani, the New York City mayor, sided with progressive challengers against establishment-backed Democrats and came away with wins in all three contests. The outcome has national implications because House primaries in New York often test the direction of the Democratic coalition before those arguments migrate into larger fights over the party’s 2028 future. For allies of Israel, the losses suggested that the old assumption of automatic bipartisan backing is looking less secure.

The pressure points are not confined to New York. A December 11, 2025 survey of 1,000 Jewish Israeli adults commissioned by the Ruderman Family Foundation found that 78% said the relationship with American Jewry is important and essential. But the same survey found deep anxiety about the future, with nearly eight in ten Israelis worried about declining support for Israel among the American public.

Among American Jewish adults, a March 2026 survey by the Jewish Electorate Institute found strong support for Israel’s right to exist, but also caution about military escalation in Iran and mixed views on pro-Israel political spending. Together with the Gaza war and the recent Israel-Iran conflict, those numbers point to a broader shift: Washington still backs Israel, but analysts increasingly see the United States as more willing than in past decades to use leverage, and less likely to treat support as automatic.