New Zealanders now see US as bigger threat than China

New Zealanders are now more likely to call the United States a threat than China, a striking reversal in a country that has long tried to balance security ties with Washington and deep commercial links across Asia. In a new Asia New Zealand Foundation survey of 2,300 people conducted in January and February, 39% described the United States as a friend of New Zealand, while 35% called it a threat. China was viewed more favorably, with 43% calling it a friend and 23% calling it a threat.

The shift matters because it points to a broader change in how New Zealanders read global politics. The survey suggests opinion is being shaped less by a simple East-West divide than by concerns over trade disruption, policy uncertainty and wider instability. David Capie has argued that New Zealanders tend to think about security through an economic lens, where tariffs and trade shocks can matter as much as military posture. That helps explain why U.S. behavior now appears to weigh more heavily on public sentiment than it did even a year ago.

The results also reinforce how central Asia has become to New Zealand’s outlook. The foundation said two-thirds of New Zealanders believe the country should keep investing energy and resources in ties with Asia, and it describes the region as New Zealand’s second most important world region after Australia. Suzannah Jessep said that “prosperity, resilience, and security depend on the depth and quality of relationships across Asia.” The survey’s 29th year also adds historical weight, showing this is not a fleeting mood swing but part of a long-running shift in the country’s strategic imagination.

Japan remained New Zealanders’ closest friend in Asia, a position it has held since the question was first asked in 2017. Singapore, the Philippines and South Korea followed. RNZ said trust in regional powers including Japan, India, Indonesia, China and Australia has risen, while trust in the United States continues to fall. That same report found 81% of New Zealanders believe ties with Asia are important, including 39% who said they are very important, and that travel to Asia rose 14% over the previous year, making it New Zealand’s most visited world region outside Australia and the South Pacific.

The December 2025 polling pointed in the same direction. Only 21% of New Zealanders said they had high or very high trust in the United States to act responsibly in the world, while 14% said the same of China. Australia led at 69%, followed by Japan at 56% and the United Kingdom at 55%. The pattern underscores the political challenge for Wellington: preserve the U.S. security relationship while managing a public that is increasingly oriented toward Asia for trade, travel and long-term stability.