Oil prices edge higher as traders brace for U.S. holiday weekend

Oil prices edged higher Thursday as traders moved to secure barrels before the U.S. Independence Day weekend, but the lift looked more like positioning than a true reversal. Brent settled at $71.80 a barrel, up 23 cents, while West Texas Intermediate finished at $68.69, up 11 cents, after both benchmarks had recently touched their lowest levels since before the conflict that began in late February.

The weekly numbers still pointed down. Brent ended the week off 0.60% and WTI down 0.78%, a reminder that the market has steadied only after a sharp slide. Trading Economics put crude near $68.53 on July 3 and said prices had fallen more than 25% over the past month, underscoring how far oil had retreated even after Thursday’s bounce. “We’re seeing a little short covering here,” John Kilduff, a partner at Again Capital, said, as buyers looked to make sure supply would be available for the long holiday stretch.

The other force behind the move was the persistent threat and gradual easing of tension around the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint that carries about one-fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas trade. Talks in Doha between the United States and Iran lasted two days and ended without a clear durable peace breakthrough. Qatar said the next meeting would come after July 9 funeral processions for Iran’s late Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and negotiators were said to have discussed maritime traffic through the strait and the unfreezing of Iran’s funds.

For now, supply has kept moving. At least five supertankers carrying a total of 10 million barrels of Saudi oil loaded from Ras Tanura had exited the Strait of Hormuz, while strategic reserves were also being tapped to cushion the market. That flow has already changed the outlook at UBS, which cut its Brent forecast because shipments through Hormuz increased. One recent projection from the bank put Brent at an average of about $84 a barrel in 2026 and $75 in 2027.

For U.S. households, the next test is whether this weekend’s price bump stays contained or starts showing up in gasoline and shipping costs once the holiday passes. Next week’s crude inventory data, refinery activity and pump prices will show whether Thursday’s move was mostly short covering or the start of a tighter market.