Social Security benefits seen rising 3.6% to 3.8% in 2027

New estimates put the 2027 Social Security cost-of-living adjustment at 3.6% to 3.8%, a gain that would lift checks but still lag rising costs for housing, health care and food. AARP puts the increase at 3.6%, while The Senior Citizens League puts it at 3.8%, down from its 3.9% estimate in May.

The final figure will not be locked in until October 2026, after the government releases the September inflation report. The Social Security Administration calculates the annual COLA from inflation readings for July, August and September, using the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers. Late-summer price data can still push the 2027 adjustment higher or lower before the announcement.

The average retired worker's monthly benefit was $2,071 in January 2026, and a 3.6% to 3.8% COLA would add roughly $75 to $79 a month, bringing that check to about $2,146 to $2,149. Social Security and Supplemental Security Income benefits for 75 million Americans rose 2.8% in 2026, with the higher payments starting in January.

A 2027 increase in that range would be the biggest since 2023, when beneficiaries received an 8.7% bump, the largest in decades. It would follow a 2.5% COLA in 2025 and a 3.2% increase in 2024.

Social Security COLAs have been automatic since 1975, when Congress moved away from legislating benefit increases one by one.