S&P affirms U.S. AA+ rating, cites economic resilience and tariff revenue

S&P Global Ratings affirmed the United States at AA+ on Friday and kept the outlook stable, saying the country’s economic resilience and revenue collection remain strong enough to support its sovereign credit profile. The agency also held the short-term rating at A-1+, signaling no near-term change in its view of U.S. credit quality.

The decision rests on a paradox that has defined Washington’s fiscal debate for years: the U.S. remains one of the world’s strongest sovereign borrowers, yet not strong enough to win back the AAA label. S&P said broad revenue buoyancy, including solid tariff income, should help limit fiscal slippage, and it does not expect a persistent deterioration in deficits over the next several years. Even so, the agency said net general government debt is expected to approach 100% of gross domestic product, underscoring how heavy the federal debt load remains.

For Treasury borrowing costs, the affirmation is a vote of confidence, not a guarantee of cheaper financing. U.S. government debt still benefits from deep markets and broad demand, and S&P’s stable outlook suggests the agency does not see an imminent credit move that would jar investors. But the rating itself remains below triple-A, so the message to bond markets is that the United States is still creditworthy, while Washington’s fiscal trajectory still leaves room for concern.

The implications for mortgage rates are even more indirect. Home borrowing costs track Treasury yields, inflation expectations and Federal Reserve policy far more closely than they do a sovereign rating action. S&P’s decision may help preserve investor confidence at the margin, but it does not by itself reset the pricing of home loans or other consumer credit.

In Washington, the affirmation is more likely to sharpen than soften the debt argument. S&P said the economy remains diverse and strong even as domestic and international policy changes continue to affect markets and public finances. That leaves lawmakers with a familiar warning: the credit profile is holding, but only because economic strength is still offsetting fiscal and political strain.

The latest action also fits S&P’s recent history on U.S. debt. On Aug. 5, 2011, the firm cut the federal government’s long-term rating from AAA to AA+, the first time a major ratings agency pushed U.S. sovereign debt below triple-A. In August 2025, S&P again affirmed AA+ and said a $5 trillion debt-ceiling increase was part of its analysis, while still pointing to deficits as a continuing risk.