Study finds immigration boosted growth and productivity in rich countries

GDP per worker rose 1.2% within five years and 1.9% over 10 years after a 1% increase in immigration equal to population. A paper to be discussed at the European Central Bank’s Forum on Central Banking 2026 in Sintra, Portugal, finds wealthy countries that took in more immigrants over the past 35 years saw gains in GDP per worker, investment and growth potential.

The paper will be discussed at the ECB Forum on Central Banking 2026 in Sintra, Portugal, at a session titled “Migration: implications for productivity and growth in Europe.” The paper is listed as “The immigration impact on population, labor productivity, investments and TFP in OECD countries,” with Giovanni Peri of the University of California, Davis, joined by Gaetano Basso of Banca d’Italia and Mitali R. The session is chaired by ECB Vice-President Boris Vujčić.

Across dozens of rich OECD countries, the economic gains from immigration show up most clearly in labor productivity, investment and overall growth potential. Many high-income countries could still absorb more workers, especially where native population growth has stalled or turned negative.

The number of immigrants arriving from outside the OECD rose to about 100 million in 2024 from about 25 million in 1990. OECD data show permanent migration to its member countries reached 6.2 million in 2024, down 4% from 2023 but still 15% above 2019 levels. In the European Union, Eurostat data show 9% of people living in EU countries were non-nationals in 2023, including 3% citizens of another EU country and 6% citizens of a non-EU country.

Eurostat data also show the EU has had negative natural population change since 2012, with recent population growth driven by positive net migration offsetting deaths outnumbering births. The share of people aged 65 and over in the EU rose from 16% in 2003 to 21% in 2023. ECB economists have already described foreign workers as a “lever” for economic growth in the euro area, and Christine Lagarde said in August 2025 that their rising participation helped Europe reduce inflation without a sharp slowdown in growth.