Texas Senate race tightens as Talarico ties Paxton in new poll

James Talarico and Ken Paxton were tied at 47 percent apiece in a June 30, 2026 New York Times/Siena Texas poll, a result that shows how quickly Democrats have turned a long Republican stronghold into a competitive statewide race. Even so, Texans said they preferred Republicans to control the Senate by 50 percent to 44 percent, leaving Paxton with the broader partisan advantage.

The same survey gave Talarico a clear edge on the personal traits that often shape down-ballot contests. Fifty-six percent of Texans said Talarico has good character, compared with 31 percent for Paxton, and 51 percent said Talarico has the right kind of moral values, against 35 percent for Paxton. That contrast has become central to the matchup between Paxton, who won the Republican runoff on May 26, 2026, and Talarico, a former public school teacher and Texas House member first elected in 2018.

The Hispanic vote is what makes this race read less like a single polling snapshot and more like evidence of a deeper shift. University of Texas at Austin research found Trump won 55 percent of the Latino vote in Texas in 2024, a 13-point increase from 2020 and a record high for a Republican presidential candidate in the state. That kind of movement helps explain why Democrats are not just narrowing the gap in Texas, but doing so with a coalition that has looked different from the one that failed in earlier cycles.

Texas Republicans have controlled statewide politics for decades. John Cornyn defeated M.J. Hegar in the 2020 Senate race, and Democrats have not won a statewide election in Texas since 1994. But Siena had already flagged the Senate contest as too close to call in its June 15 Texas poll, which also found 51 percent of Texans said last year’s redistricting was bad for democracy, compared with 38 percent who disagreed.

That earlier poll also showed where the state’s pressure points were headed: cost of living, water supply and border security ranked as the top issues. Trump, who carried Texas by 13 points in 2024, held a negative 45 percent favorable to 51 percent unfavorable rating and a 48 percent approve to 52 percent disapprove job approval rating. Texans still approved of his handling of border security, 57 percent to 40 percent, but disapproved of his handling of affordability, 57 percent to 41 percent, a split that tracks the broader opening Democrats are trying to exploit.