Trump administration declines to renew USMCA, raising trade uncertainty

The Trump administration declined to renew USMCA on July 1, putting the North American trade pact into annual reviews. The agreement stays in force until July 1, 2036 unless the United States, Mexico and Canada all agree to extend or revise it sooner, and any country can still withdraw with six months’ notice.

U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said the United States did not agree to renew the deal in its current form and would keep talking with Mexico and Canada about its shortcomings and trade deficits. President Donald Trump promised a 16-year renewal when he sold the pact in his first term as a more balanced replacement for NAFTA that would help workers, farmers, ranchers and businesses.

Michigan’s manufacturing exports supported an estimated 218,000 jobs in 2023, and transportation equipment accounted for $23.4 billion of the state’s total goods exports in 2025. Ohio’s manufacturing exports supported 179,000 jobs, with transportation equipment at $18.3 billion, while Texas shipped $125.2 billion in goods to Mexico in 2025, equal to 28 percent of its total goods exports.

The review lands after the administration has already imposed 25 percent tariffs on imported autos and auto parts and 50 percent tariffs on steel and aluminum. The three governments had already opened public-comment processes before the 2026 review, while Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum signed a letter calling for a 16-year extension and Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said Canada wanted a new deal and was ready to negotiate improvements. North American trade was estimated at about $1.8 trillion to $1.93 trillion in 2024, supporting roughly 17 million jobs.