Trump-Iran deal leaves Israel facing setback on multiple fronts

Israel’s campaign against Iran has shifted from maximalist war aims to damage control. A memorandum of understanding between Washington and Tehran is set to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and trigger 60 days of nuclear talks, but for Benjamin Netanyahu it reads as a strategic setback: the joint war he had wagered would topple Iran’s clerical rulers has instead left Israel confronting a deal that leaves its core objectives unresolved.

The timing sharpened the blow. Donald Trump said on May 23 that an agreement with Iran had been “largely negotiated.” Within days, Israeli officials were warning that the framework was inadequate, and by June 14 and 15 the emerging deal was being described as complete. Inside Jerusalem, officials privately called the preliminary arrangement “terrible for Israel” and later warned that it was a “bad deal” because it did not address Iran’s missile program or its regional proxy network.

That omission goes to the heart of Israel’s war aims. The emerging framework does not clearly weaken Iran’s missile infrastructure, curb Hezbollah and other proxies, or force regime change. It also raises the prospect that Israel’s room to maneuver in Lebanon and elsewhere in the region could shrink just as the talks begin. Washington has said the negotiations will continue for 60 days, and Israeli officials fear that period could be extended, effectively tying Israel’s hands while its security concerns remain unsettled.

The clash with Trump deepened over Beirut. In early June, Trump angrily called Netanyahu and ordered him not to strike Beirut while the United States was trying to close the deal. Netanyahu struck Beirut’s southern suburbs anyway, setting off Iranian missile fire against Israel and drawing a public rebuke from Trump. The episode underscored how far Netanyahu’s assumptions about a shared campaign against Tehran had broken down.

The wider diplomatic picture leaves Israel with a narrow set of choices. The agreement expected to be signed in Switzerland on Friday would also, according to Iranian and Pakistani sources, include a ceasefire in the Israel-Hezbollah conflict and Iranian claims that it releases $12 billion to Iran. If that structure holds, Netanyahu will be left pressing for firmer guarantees, while Israel’s military options in Lebanon and against Iran’s network of proxies grow more constrained by the day.