Trump loses ground with rural voters as costs and Iran war bite

Rural America, long one of Donald Trump’s most dependable political shields, is showing cracks as higher gasoline and food prices collide with growing unease over the war on Iran. A Reuters/Ipsos poll found Trump’s approval among rural voters fell to 50 percent in June, down from 60 percent in February 2025, while disapproval rose to 48 percent from 34 percent.

The numbers reflect a strain visible in places where long drives and tight budgets are part of daily life. Brian Rauch, a 42-year-old Air Force veteran in rural Stevensville, Montana, said he makes 30-mile trips to the doctor and feels the pinch every time he fills up or buys groceries. Rauch, who works for a nonprofit helping veterans adjust to civilian life, said he voted for Trump in the last three presidential elections but has grown increasingly disapproving of his leadership.

The June poll put Trump’s overall approval at 35 percent, near the low end of his political career. Among rural respondents, just 31 percent approved of his handling of the cost of living and the economy, while 61 percent disapproved. Across the country, only 22 percent approved of how he was managing the high cost of living. The survey was conducted online from June 3 to June 8 among 4,531 U.S. adults, with a margin of error of 3 percentage points for rural respondents and 2 points overall.

Those fault lines matter because rural voters have been central to Trump’s coalition in three presidential races. Pew Research Center data cited in Reuters showed Trump won rural voters by 40 points in 2024, compared with 31 points in 2020 and 25 points in 2016. If that margin narrows further, Republican strategists could face added pressure in the 2026 midterms, especially if economic frustration continues to outweigh party loyalty in counties that have repeatedly delivered big margins for Trump.

The unease is not limited to Montana. Bryan Shaver, a 62-year-old insurance agent in Hattiesburg, Mississippi, said persistent food prices have left him worried Republicans could be in “big trouble in November.” Shaver, who once worked for Sen. Roger Wicker when Wicker was a congressman, voted for Trump in 2024.

A separate Reuters/Ipsos poll in May found 79 percent of Republicans approved of Trump, down from 91 percent at the start of his current term, while 47 percent approved of his handling of the cost of living and 46 percent disapproved. The party’s grip remains firm, but the pressure is shifting to the place Trump usually counts on most: the rural voters who once treated him as a near sure thing.