Trump-Saudi nuclear deal draws warnings over proliferation risks

Former Defense Department official Matthew Kroenig warned that a U.S.-Saudi nuclear agreement could hand Riyadh the kind of fuel-cycle capability that has long set off proliferation alarms in Washington and Jerusalem. Kroenig and Henry Sokolski argued in a Wall Street Journal op-ed, titled The Saudi Nuclear Deal Invites Disaster, that allowing Saudi Arabia to enrich uranium would open the door to proliferation in the Middle East and beyond.

The agreement at issue is a 30-year civilian nuclear cooperation pact that the Trump administration signed or approved with Saudi Arabia. The U.S. Energy Department called it a “historic nuclear cooperation agreement” and said the two countries had reached an agreement on peaceful nuclear cooperation, but the deal’s practical details are what worry critics. AP reported that the arrangement could allow Saudi Arabia to enrich uranium, and could even permit construction of a uranium enrichment facility inside the kingdom. That is the line many nonproliferation experts view as decisive, because enrichment technology can be used for civilian fuel and, with further steps, for weapons-related purposes.

BBC reporting said the deal was tied to Saudi Arabia recognizing Israel or normalizing relations with it, a condition Donald Trump had said was central to the agreement. BBC also noted that the administration’s move reversed a years-long U.S. stance that had required Saudi normalization with Israel before Washington would back such a major nuclear accord. That makes the pact as much about regional alignment as atomic power: it preserves U.S. leverage with a central Gulf partner while trying to keep Saudi Arabia closer to Washington than to rival suppliers.

But the strategic tradeoff is stark. AP said U.S. lawmakers and Israel warned that if Saudi Arabia can enrich uranium, the agreement could pave the way for a weapons program. BBC’s live coverage said critics feared it could undermine global nuclear nonproliferation and allow Riyadh to develop its own nuclear weapons program. With Saudi Arabia a major oil exporter and a central Gulf power, any U.S. move that helps it build a nuclear fuel cycle could ripple across the region, especially as Iran’s nuclear program continues to shape the security calculations of the Persian Gulf and the Red Sea. Kroenig’s comments on The Takeout added a defense-policy warning to a widening debate over whether countering Iran is worth raising the odds of a future regional nuclear cascade.