UK retail sales rise 1.2% in May, beating expectations

Warm weather and heavy promotions gave UK retailers a stronger May than economists expected, but the rebound still looks fragile. Retail sales volumes rose 1.2% on the month and 3.2% from a year earlier, even after April was revised to a 1.0% fall. The key question is whether shoppers are genuinely recovering or simply spending when the weather turns and discounts deepen.

The Office for National Statistics said the improvement was concentrated in non-food categories, where department stores benefited from the good weather and sales of products tied to sunshine and outdoor activity picked up. Computer and telecoms retailers also kept growing after product releases in March, while non-store retailers posted solid gains following strong March and May periods. Over the three months to May, sales volumes were up just 0.4% from the previous three months, a reminder that the underlying trend remains modest even after the monthly jump.

Food stores continued to lag, reinforcing the sense that households are still careful with budgets and selective about what they buy. The ONS also revised March sales up to a 0.7% increase from 0.6%, suggesting the spring path was somewhat firmer than first reported, but not enough to erase the unevenness in demand. The monthly lift came on top of a period in which shoppers responded most clearly to seasonal conditions and price cuts, not to broad-based confidence.

That caution was visible in consumer sentiment as well. GfK’s long-running Consumer Confidence Index was unchanged at -23 in June, after improving to that level in May from an even weaker April reading. The Bank of England kept Bank Rate at 3.75% on June 18, with inflation at 2.8%, a policy backdrop that still leaves households under pressure and keeps borrowing costs restrictive. The next rate decision is due on July 30, giving policymakers another chance to weigh whether retail resilience is holding up or merely flickering.

Industry data pointed in the same direction. The British Retail Consortium said total retail sales rose 3.7% year on year in May, the strongest increase since April 2025, with food sales up 3.9% and non-food sales up 3.5%. The contrast between the industry and official figures suggests spending is improving, but unevenly and with weather, timing and discounts still doing much of the work. The next ONS retail sales release, due on July 24, will offer an important read on whether May was the start of steadier momentum or just a temporary bounce.