Ukraine intensifies strikes on Russia, testing Putin’s war resolve

Ukraine has moved beyond the front line to strike the infrastructure that keeps Russia’s war machine running. A drone hit on a Moscow oil refinery and a broader campaign against Russian-occupied Crimea have pushed Moscow to confront damage far from the battlefield, while analysts say Kyiv is trying to make the war costlier for Vladimir Putin’s government with every new strike.

The pressure escalated sharply in the night of June 17 to 18, when Ukrainian forces carried out a large-scale strike that heavily targeted Moscow City and hit the Moscow Oil Refinery for the second time in two days, according to the Institute for the Study of War. That followed another refinery strike that had already put Russia on notice that its capital and energy network were within range. CNBC also reported that Ukraine stepped up attacks on Russian-occupied Crimea, extending the reach of the campaign beyond symbolic targets in Moscow.

The consequences are no longer confined to military planners. Reuters reported that Russian officials were considering tighter fuel-market measures as the strikes continued, while Crimea imposed restrictions on public life over security concerns. In Moscow, petrol shortages and the visible fallout from the attacks have made the war harder to ignore, Al Jazeera reported on June 19. In the same period, Ukraine secured 4 billion euros, or about $4.6 billion, in new military aid commitments from allies, giving Kyiv additional room to sustain the pressure.

The scale of the disruption is now broad enough to affect the wider economy. Bloomberg reported that more than 50 regions in Russia were experiencing severe fuel shortages, and that strikes on refineries and ports had cut refining capacity by 20% to 30%. Moscow had already banned gasoline producers from exporting fuel until the end of August 2025 to steady domestic supplies, a sign that the Kremlin has been trying for months to shield Russian consumers from the cost of the war.

Russia has responded with threats of its own. After the Moscow refinery strike, CNBC reported that Moscow pledged frequent and “massive group strikes” against Ukraine, underscoring the danger that attacks on energy infrastructure could widen the conflict even as Kyiv seeks to force the Kremlin to weigh battlefield gains against rising economic pain at home.