UN warns Ebola outbreak could cost Africa $3.6 billion

On May 15, the Democratic Republic of the Congo’s Ministry of Public Health, Hygiene and Social Welfare confirmed Bundibugyo virus disease in eight of 13 blood samples taken in Rwampara Health Zone in Ituri Province. A slower response to the Ebola outbreak in central Africa could turn it into a $3.6 billion economic shock for the continent, with damage spreading through trade, border flows and investor confidence. UNDP estimates Congo alone could still lose about $1 billion in GDP.

Uganda confirmed a linked outbreak the same day after identifying one imported case from Congo in Kampala. By June 22, Congo’s health ministry had confirmed more than 1,000 cases, making it the third-largest Ebola outbreak on record, and the disease had spread to North Kivu and South Kivu.

If the virus moved into countries including Rwanda and Angola, the continent could face a $3.6 billion GDP hit and about 328,000 job losses. Fuel prices remain elevated because of the Iran crisis, a pressure point that could deepen transport costs, slow border activity and magnify the economic fallout from any prolonged outbreak.

The emergency is unfolding in a difficult setting marked by humanitarian crisis, insecurity, remote and densely populated areas, and heavy movement of people and goods across borders. WHO is scaling up surveillance, contact tracing, clinical preparedness, supply delivery, community engagement and cross-border readiness in Congo and Uganda.

There is no licensed vaccine or specific therapeutic for Bundibugyo virus, though supportive care can still save lives. WHO puts past Bundibugyo outbreaks at case fatality rates between 30% and 50%. UNICEF and the global vaccine alliance Gavi have sought information from developers and manufacturers about possible plans for a Bundibugyo Ebola vaccine.

Damien Mama, UNDP’s resident representative, said the outbreak can still be contained if governments and donors move quickly.