U.S. airfares jump 4.7% in first quarter as oil prices surge

U.S. domestic airfares climbed 4.7% in the first quarter of 2026 to $428, a jump that lands directly in travelers’ budgets just as summer flying season begins to peak. The Bureau of Transportation Statistics said the average fare rose from an inflation-adjusted $409 in the fourth quarter of 2025, reflecting a higher-cost environment for airlines as oil prices surged in March during the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran.

The increase was sharper in unadjusted terms, up 5.7% from the prior three months and 7.7% from the same period a year earlier. Round-trip itineraries carried the heavier bill, averaging $522 and accounting for 55% of fares, while one-way tickets averaged $305 and made up 45%. That split matters for households weighing vacation plans, business travel and family visits, because a ticket basket that tilts toward round trips pushes the total cash outlay higher even before bags, seat assignments or other extras are added.

The Transportation Department’s fare measure comes from the Bureau of Transportation Statistics Passenger Origin and Destination Survey and excludes charter air travel. It captures total ticket value, including carrier-imposed taxes and fees, but not optional services such as checked-bag charges. For the first quarter of 2026, the report was based on about 40% of tickets sold after BTS expanded sampling from 10% to 40% beginning July 1, 2025.

Fuel remains the central pressure point. Aviation is a fuel-intensive business, and oil shocks tend to work through airline pricing with a lag, especially when carriers have hedged only part of their fuel exposure. Even when crude prices later ease, airlines can keep fares elevated if demand stays firm and seats remain tight, leaving passengers with little immediate relief. That dynamic makes airfare inflation look less like a one-time spike than a delayed pass-through from the energy market to the checkout screen.

The domestic airfare report has been running since June 1997, when the first release covered third-quarter 1996 data. More than two decades of quarterly figures show how quickly geopolitical disruptions can reach consumer prices, and how slowly they may unwind once airlines reset their fare structure.