U.S., Iran edge toward peace deal as nuclear, shipping terms stall

The United States and Iran are closer than at any point in years to an agreement that would open negotiations on a long-term peace deal, but the bargain is still hanging on two hard questions: how far Iran will roll back its nuclear program and what it will take to secure shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. President Donald Trump said a deal was close, Iran’s foreign minister, Mohammad Javad Zarif, said an agreement had “never been closer,” and Pakistan’s prime minister, Shehbaz Sharif, went so far as to say the final text had been agreed to.

Iran itself has not gone that far. Tehran said it had not yet reached a final conclusion, even as Secretary of State Marco Rubio said an agreement could be announced as early as Monday. The gap between those statements captures the central tradeoff now in view: Washington wants verifiable limits that would stop Iran from advancing toward a bomb, while Tehran is being asked to give up the leverage that has long made its nuclear program its main source of strategic pressure.

The sharpest sticking points are the length of any halt on enrichment, now discussed as either 15 or 20 years, and whether Iran would dismantle nuclear sites rather than merely freeze them. The shipping issue is just as sensitive. The Strait of Hormuz remains a critical chokepoint for global oil flows, and any agreement that changes access there would affect not only Iran’s room to maneuver but also the costs and risks borne by tankers, insurers and Gulf states.

A senior State Department official said, “We’re still a work in progress... we have what I think is a pretty solid thing on the table in terms of their ability to open up the straits.” That line underscores why diplomacy is advancing now: the military and economic alternatives are becoming more expensive by the day. A January 2026 State Department document said the Trump administration’s maximum pressure campaign seeks to curb Iran’s ballistic missile and nuclear programs and reduce oil revenues, but the same pressure has not ended the confrontation.

The price of failure is steep. Linda Bilmes of the Harvard Kennedy School has estimated the war costs the United States about $2 billion a day and will cost at least $1 trillion overall, while she and economist Joseph Stiglitz previously put the Iraq war bill at more than $2 trillion. CSIS has separately estimated the first 12 days of the Iran campaign cost about $16.5 billion, including $11.3 billion in topline Defense Department cost, and warned that depleted munitions inventories could create wider strategic risks.

That leaves both sides with familiar concessions and fewer good alternatives. Iran would have to trade nuclear autonomy for sanctions relief and reduced isolation; Washington would have to decide whether a partial deal, especially one that protects shipping in the Gulf, is enough. With the State Department also saying on June 10 that the United States and many allies condemned Iranian threat activity in Europe, North America and Australia, any accord would arrive into a climate of deep distrust. If talks fail, the market will watch oil prices, shipping risk and regional escalation all rise together.