U.S. sugar demand rises as consumers shun corn syrup

U.S. sugar demand rose 0.6% while use of high-fructose corn syrup fell, even as the U.S. population increased 0.5% in 2025. Three out of four U.S. households were choosing less processed foods, a shift that is sending sweetener demand in opposite directions and forcing food companies to read labels as carefully as they read prices.

The pattern goes beyond a simple health fad. Consumers are not abandoning sweet foods, but many are favoring ingredients they see as cleaner or less industrial, which gives table sugar an advantage over corn syrup in beverages, baked goods, snacks and packaged meals. That perception is powerful enough to change purchasing patterns for a commodity that sits deep in the supply chain, from wet milling plants to supermarket shelves.

The sweetener trade has seen this before. In 2014, corn syrup producers offered rare price cuts as falling sugar prices threatened their market share. Two years later, all four major U.S. corn syrup makers were raising prices even as demand slowed, while food companies including McDonald’s were swapping syrup for sugar in products. The same tug of war over how ingredients are marketed, and whether they sound natural or processed, has already fueled legal fights over “natural” claims and a 2016 settlement between major sugar companies and corn refiners.

The pressure is showing up in corporate planning and farm economics. When Coca-Cola weighed a move to cane sugar on July 17, 2025, the change was expected to be expensive and to hurt U.S. farmers. A June 30, 2025 analysis from the Corn Refiners Association by economists Sandro Steinbach, Shawn Arita and Matthew Gammans warned that declining domestic HFCS demand could hit U.S. corn prices and cash receipts, since HFCS remains a major outlet for field corn through wet milling.

Supply data still point to a market shaped by both perception and abundance. The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Economic Research Service forecast U.S. 2025/26 sugar supply at 14.119 million short tons, raw value, while market data put U.S. per-capita sugar and sweetener consumption on track to fall 0.2% to 120.6 pounds in 2025. An ERS chart-gallery item said corn sweeteners availability has declined over the last two decades, underscoring the longer slide in the category.

For manufacturers, the economics are becoming harder to ignore. Corn syrup has long won on cost and ease of use, but sugar now has the stronger label appeal, and companies are increasingly reformulating for perception as much as for taste.