US travel expected to hit near-record levels over July Fourth holiday

AAA projected 72.2 million Americans will travel at least 50 miles from home between June 27 and July 5, putting this year’s Independence Day period just above the 71.8 million travelers it counted a year earlier. 61.4 million people are expected to drive, nearly unchanged from 61.3 million last year, even as gas prices have climbed to four-year highs.

Driving remains the dominant choice: 85% of Independence Day travelers are expected to get there by car. Air travel is expected to bring 5.85 million domestic passengers, while 4.93 million people are projected to travel by bus, train or cruise. Stacey Barber, AAA Travel’s vice president, said the overall number of travelers is plateauing, but record volumes are still expected.

OAG Aviation’s John Grant said domestic flight capacity is flat from last year. At the same time, the 250th anniversary of American independence and the FIFA World Cup are adding pulls of their own.

New York, Chicago and Boston remain top draws because of fireworks and other patriotic events, while Washington is seeing America250-related demand. HotelPlanner said Washington hotel bookings for the holiday weekend have risen fivefold from last year, and average room rates are up 35%.

The World Cup is adding another layer of pressure in Florida. AirDNA said Miami vacation rentals were up 68% ahead of a knockout match involving Argentina and Cape Verde, underscoring how international soccer can move U.S. leisure markets well beyond traditional summer vacation patterns. Casago chief executive Steve Schawb said the anniversary push is helping reduce cancellations even when heat becomes a concern, as an expected heat wave threatens to alter some plans.