U.S. vehicle sales beat expectations despite inflation and Iran war fears

June was running at a 16.1 million annualized pace, according to Cox Automotive, and U.S. auto sales in the first half of 2026 fell only 3% from a year earlier.

The market held up despite higher gas prices, renewed inflation anxiety, concern about jobs and consumer jitters tied to the Iran war. Cox Automotive senior economist Charlie Chesbrough said buyers have largely shrugged off the latest shock, including the jump in oil and fuel prices. Affluent households are keeping up purchases of big-ticket vehicles even as lower-income consumers pull back, a split that is keeping average transaction prices elevated. Slightly lower borrowing costs have also helped blunt some of the pressure on monthly payments, while hybrid vehicles are pulling in shoppers who want better fuel economy without moving downmarket.

General Motors led U.S. sales in the quarter even after a 4.2% decline from a year earlier. GMC posted its best-ever Sierra sales for the second quarter and its best-ever Canyon sales for the first half, while GM said it continued to offer six Chevrolet and Buick models with starting MSRPs of about $30,000 or less. GM also remained the No. 2 EV seller in the United States.

Toyota rose 1% and Hyundai 4%, while Stellantis increased 6% on the strength of Ram truck sales. Cox Automotive said Toyota’s second-quarter momentum was narrowing the gap with GM and could put the brands in contention for year-end leadership if current trends hold.

Randy Parker, the company’s North American president, said it was moving at “warp speed” to bring hybrids into its Georgia plant, where the company says its Metaplant just outside Savannah is its first dedicated mass-production electrified-vehicle factory and is designed to build up to 500,000 vehicles a year. Cox kept its full-year 2026 forecast unchanged at 15.8 million U.S. light vehicles, down 2.9% from 2025.