Wedding rumors for Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce drive prediction market bets

Bettors had staked more than $4 million on prediction markets tied to Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce’s wedding rumors, even though neither Swift nor Kelce had announced any plans to marry. The venue category alone drew more than $2.26 million.

New York was the favorite wedding location on Kalshi at 80%, with Rhode Island at 17%; Polymarket priced Manhattan at 64%. New York City filed a permit to close streets around Madison Square Garden from July 2 to midday July 4 for an event on July 3.

Kalshi made Jason Kelce the leading groomsman pick at 94%, followed by Patrick Mahomes at 87%, while Polymarket put Abigail Anderson Berard at 87% to serve as maid of honor, ahead of Selena Gomez at 57% and Gigi Hadid at 40%. Kalshi also gave the wedding a 96% chance of happening sometime in 2026, while Polymarket assigned a 1% chance it happened before June 30 and a 96% chance it arrived before Aug. 31.

Polymarket and Kalshi let users bet on likely outcomes across sports and pop culture. Swift-related categories include bridesmaids, groomsmen, likely guests and whether the couple will make time for a World Cup match. A Yahoo/YouGov survey found that 77% of Americans had heard at least a little about Swift and Kelce’s engagement, but only 22% said they cared.