white working-class voters sour on Trump as economy approval falls

Donald Trump’s strongest economic argument is weakening inside the white working-class coalition that helped return him to the White House. Polling now shows that the voters who gave him a 66% to 32% advantage over Kamala Harris in 2024 are increasingly unimpressed with his handling of prices, wages and job security, raising the question of whether this is a short-lived inflation backlash or a deeper break in trust.

The shift is stark in historical context. Brookings, citing AP VoteCast exit polling, found that white working-class voters backed Trump by 62% in 2016, 59% in 2020 and 66% in 2024. The same 66% share went to Republican congressional candidates in 2022, underscoring how central this bloc has been to GOP strength in industrial and rural states that often decide control of Congress.

But the AP-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research found Trump’s standing on the economy had already sunk to 30% in polling conducted April 16-20, down from 38% in March. Only 33% of U.S. adults approved of his overall job performance. An AP analysis tied the slide to inflation, gasoline prices, tariffs and the Iran war, which have kept costs high and left much of the economy in limbo. Gasoline prices jumped after U.S. attacks on Iran in February, adding another hit to households already strained by everyday expenses.

The erosion is not confined to one poll or one political slice. An AP-NORC analysis found independents without a college degree, a closely related working-class bloc, moved from roughly half viewing Trump positively around the 2024 election to about one-quarter this spring. That is a warning sign for Republicans who have relied on non-college voters as a stabilizing force in close House and Senate contests.

Some of Trump’s own supporters have said they feel betrayed by his failure to bring costs down as promised. Reuters/Ipsos reported Trump’s approval at 35% in a June 3-8 poll, while The Economist / YouGov found a record 63% of Americans disapproved of his handling of the economy in a June 5-8 survey. Brookings noted that Trump’s white working-class share in 2024 was large but not unprecedented for Republicans, and that other GOP nominees have also cleared two-thirds with this group. The immediate problem for Trump is whether voters see the pressure on household budgets as a temporary spike or as proof that the economic bargain he sold them is slipping away.